Dude there are so many factors involved, you can't say that he would have gotten ANY definite sentence.
I got banged selling dope, a CLASS A felony carrying 10-30 years. They had a confidential informant (pathetic bitch ass slug) come, had me on audio and video, the whole shebang. I ended up pleading down to possession, a class C felony and served 1 year on probation. I am a felon.
Everybody in jail told me I was fucked, they was gonna max me out this and that. They were full of themselves (full of shit). There are wayy too many factors involved, most importantly the human element, including your attorney, the DA, and the judge involved. So many factors..
Rook something tells me you've never spent so much as a day in jail. You clearly don't know shit about how the system ACTUALLY works..
OP probably had a clean record going in. They are alot more lenient for your first offense, especially if you're older. Shows you went a long way in your life without breaking the law. I was the same way. I believe OP 100% why the fuck would he lie? It's not like a funny or especially interesting story as he left out most of the juicy details of the crimes.
Edit-- also as far as "ppl on the net don't talk about their crimes" Holy shit how stupid are you? After sentencing there is nothing they can do anyway, and that's assuming they are cotinuing to pay law enforcement to investigate the guy. N perhaps he has a very secure internet connection? They wouldn't know that it was him posting here unless they subpoed the ISPs records or physically had his hard drive.