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Alexander Chalenko
Prime Minister of the People's Republic of Donetsk Alexander Zaharchenko. archive photo
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Talking about the special status of the NPT and the LC does not go, said Zaharchenko
In Minsk on Monday began talks tripartite contact group on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, which includes representatives of the Russian Federation, Kiev, the OSCE, as well as the south-east of Ukraine. At first they thought that it will be about a cessation of hostilities in the New Russia. Then there were reports that the leadership of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic (DNI and LC) sees the future of New Russia as part of Ukraine. By evening, it became clear that no one from the DNR and LC such statements did not, and the leadership of the DNI is ready to talk to Kiev only on equal terms. The next round of negotiations will take place on September 5.
However, many believe in these statements. And they began to explain the position of the negotiators of the south-east of Ukraine Kremlin pressure on the leaders of New Russia. Like, the Kremlin can not yet allow separation of the south-east of Ukraine. The reasons are many: there are no means to support the economy of the independent (or in Russian) twenty millionth of New Russia (this is not a small Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia); no desire to go on a serious political and economic confrontation with the West. In addition, complicating the situation a humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas and the impossibility in war normalize everyday life of the population. Has not yet started the collapse of Ukraine, caused by the impending economic disaster and a new uprising in Kiev.
By this logic, autonomous Novorossia within Ukraine might be like as a compromise. Anyway, in the near future.
But I think that the Kremlin and the leaders of the two republics Novorossiysk understand that the New Russia, the remaining part of Ukraine, waiting for the inevitable defeat, even if its autonomy will be guaranteed, and Russia, and America, and the EU. Moreover, the alternative is "inevitable defeat" will only be a new war.
Let's find out why.
Military success - on the side of the militias
DNR militias in Ilovaiskaya Donetsk region
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Sivkov: conflict in Ukraine will be completed within the year defeat in Kiev
I think Washington and Kiev understand that at the moment they are able to inflict a military defeat DNR and LC. Why? Because for that Kiev has no combat-ready and well-equipped army. Armed forces, the National Guard and the Nazi punitive battalions actually defeated and demoralized. The army no one wants to go. The majority of Ukrainians living in the central and south-east - against the ATO. Punitive operation, according to opinion polls published last Saturday in Kiev newspaper "The Mirror of the week" only support the inhabitants of Kiev and western Ukraine.
It is clear that Ukraine is not just on the verge of military defeat in the Donbass. Army Novorossia can actually effortlessly take all the big Novorossia from Kharkov to Odessa, and then go on a campaign for the liberation of Kiev. About this intention repeatedly said the military leaders of the DNI and the LC.
Therefore, facing Washington and Kiev now minimum objective - is to stop the onset of the army of New Russia. Maximum task - to try to hook or by crook to keep Donbass, and hence the most Novorossia within Ukraine. If this happens, then finish off the New Russia and Novorossiysk idea, in the end, America will turn to Kiev.
Why Ukrainian Novorossia doomed
New Russia flag painted on the wall of a building on a street in the city of Donetsk. archive photo
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DNR will not agree to federalize, Prime Minister
Agreement on autonomy within Ukraine Novorossia majority of citizens in the region, and in the Donbass, and all the south-east from Odessa to Kharkov, perceive as a defeat. After fighting for the independence of the same. Times it does not, then it means that everything remained as it was. Psychologically citizens southeast will continue to feel part of Ukraine, and no longer want a repeat of spring-summer 2014.
Citizens of the DNI and LC May 11 in most voted for the independence of these republics. But then, most likely, they thought that the scenario will develop quite differently: after the vote will come "polite people", then there will be a new referendum on joining the NPT and LC to Russia, and in the end - the signing of the Treaties on entering these areas in the Russian Federation, it is a repetition of the Crimean scenario. And no Ukrainian tanks and punishers in the territory of Donbass will not. They just do not dare to start a war against Russia.
What happened in the end? It turned out the actual non-interference of Russia, which, let's be honest, it was perceived as a betrayal donbassovtsami. Instead nightmare Evromaydana Donbass got a nightmare artillery shelling Ukrainian their cities, the death of civilians. Hundreds of thousands have been displaced, hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs and livelihoods. In short, instead of reunification with Russia, Donbass received a humanitarian catastrophe.
In addition, many citizens began to take the DNI and LC as the territory of the Makhno movement and looting, as the militia, taking part in the hostilities, there has not been able to clean up and make the land territory of the law.
Therefore, for the residents of New Russia and the Donbass, and Big New Russia, if not to bring the case before independence, is now associated not with something light, with a Russian dream, with the Russian land, but only with suffering and death.
If the New Russia became independent, if as a result of her victory grasped Ukraine would collapse, all these events would have been perceived differently: what happened in the spring and summer, it was horror, but now we have no one and nothing is safe. Ukraine we do not reach. This is the other state. Let us now establish a peaceful life.
However, if the single Ukraine from Uzhgorod to Lugansk will be saved, the citizens of New Russia because of its human conformism just prefer to be Ukrainians than once again subjected to the tests that fell to their share.
If the leadership of the DNI and LC, the remaining part of Ukraine, there is no popular support for its own citizens, it will eventually get a mass protest and, in the end, the DNI and the LC as a political project is waiting for death. With regard to Kharkov and Odessa, then a Russian spring-2 there will be forgotten forever: to become victims of attacks there is no one wants.
With so demoralized and disoriented population will be easy to work with pro-Western policies and pro-Western grantoedskim public organizations that will inspire the public the idea that we should get rid of Novorossiysk ideas, it is necessary to believe in a United Ukraine, and then the horrors that citizens have experienced, will not be repeated. Do not want to Ukrainian tanks on the streets of your cities - Stop supporting separatists. The formula is clear and understandable.
The position of business and government: money may outweigh
Maxim Shalygin, columnist MIA Russia today
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Pirates of Ukraine
In Washington and Kiev, in addition to the demoralized citizens of New Russia, there is another ally - a local business. He is against the New Russia for several reasons.
He fears that the New Russia, in the first place, will be the new Transnistria. That is, it will fall under Western sanctions, and then it will be impossible to take the Western loans, do not go here, European and American products, and if so - then the population will be poor and insolvent. Thus, the business will take up the position of pro-Ukrainian, and do everything possible to prevent the mass pro-Russian movement. And in the Donbass business simply will not return. Then talk about the normalization of life in the DNI and LC no longer have. All this, in turn, will also be another reason for the massive disappointment of citizens of Donbass.
Power itself - a separate issue. Washington and Kiev will bribe the leadership of New Russia. Nothing lasts forever. Now the leaders of the pro-Russian New Russia. But who knows how things go in the future. Chiefs - the same people, some of them are greedy for money, because he wants a good life. Someone is unsatisfied ambitions, someone is offended. So do not create illusions, and assume that Washington and Kiev will not play on it, will not try to lure guide or part of it to his side.
Remember: Kuchma and Yanukovych came to power under the pro-Russian slogans, and what happened as a result? They defected to the West. Such metamorphosis can happen to someone in leadership of New Russia.
And finally, the military aspect. Washington can help Kiev to create a truly well-armed, trained and efficient army air defense system. This is now the Ukrainian army is actually broken, but it does not mean that in a few years will not be able to create professional Armed Forces.
Therefore, as part of the New Russia Ukraine - a dead end. The only thing that comforts: autonomy, in which the New Russia will have virtually the armed forces and their attorneys do not agree neither Washington nor Kiev.
http://ria.ru/analytics/20140902/1022441796.htmlDat Autonomy.
That's exactly what I've been saying all along and is the best case scenario for all involved. Shame it took this long, cost so much money and lost so many lives but I think its inevitable at this point. Keeping Donetsk and Luhansk running through Kiev is nothing but egotistical for the chocolate faggot.
I read an article by a guy from NYT names "Judah" the other day that was so full of lies I became furious.
inb4 Mariupol tomorrow
